Predictions for 2006

So it's time to list our predictions for 2006. Oh, we know 2006 is already underway but we've just finished polishing our crystal ball. Uh, that is not a euphemism for anything else. But you say, "Hey, fatties, why should we listen to you? You got any track record?" You know, that's a good question. But, first, we're big-boned. Second, here's what we said would happen in 2005:

PREDICTION: Sales up for: Imports, Same or less for domestic.
RESULT: Correct!. Not every every import went up but the big ones did and that's who we meant. Domestics went down.

PREDICTION: Gas will hit near $3 in summer (anything over $2.70 counts!)
RESULT: Correct! Gas went way, way up. And we don't want to hear it was the hurricanes. Gas went up because oil dudes could raise prices and oil dudes wanted to make more money.

PREDICTION: Hybrid sales will level off or go slightly higher
RESULT: Wrong! Sales went way up. Makes sense, but we're not bright. We figured people would keep wanting bigger cars and trucks.

PREDICTION: Cost of hybrid will go higher
RESULT: Correct! This was sort of a "duh" prediction and while we were technically correct, it wasn't in the spirit of what we meant (we really thought they'd go way up and therefore sales would drop).

PREDICITON: Saturn is going to be hurtin'
RESULT: Wrong! We don't know why, but Saturn actually eeked out a .8% increase in sales for 2005. Who is buying Saturns?

PREDICTION: Lincoln is going to have their worst year, ever. Ever, ever.
RESULT: Correct! Well, let's clarify that. They were down 11.4%. We don't know if that's their worst year ever, but it's bad and things are looking bleaker and bleaker.

PREDICTION: Phaeton will be killed
RESULT: Correct! Well, the car isn't being killed, only the imports to this country are. But since that's all we cover (the U.S. market), we are counting this as a yes.

PREDICTION: Jaguar will expand line of cars but sales will be lower and it will diminish brand. Hey Jaguar, kill off the X-type and hire a slick marketing guy to boost XJ sales, it's a great car.
RESULT: Eh. Sales were down, way down (33%). But they didn't expand the brand at all. Jaguar still needs to knock off the X-Type.

PREDICTION: Honda will continue to rock, Toyota will continue to be perfect but make snoozy cars and Subarus will get more and more expensive (and better looking). We're not sure what Nissan is doing but they are doing it better than Detroit. Essentially, import sales will go up.
RESULT: Correct!

PREDICTION: Pontiac will kill off the GTO because of poor sal... uh, it's a crappy ca... uh, shifting consumer tastes.
RESULT: Wrong! Dammit! Who the hell is buying this turd? Well, looking at sales figures, a lot fewer. While '05 sales were down only 14.6% over '04, same month sales were down nearly 73% when comparing Dec '05 to Dec '04. We wonder if that is a sign of things to come.

Predictions for 2006:

Big Deals
Ford's "Way Forward" plan will be a flop and Ford will have another tough year prompting Bill Ford to step down as CEO but remain with the company.

GM will also have another bad year. Rick Wagoner will be step down as CEO. He will be given a gold Chevy Monte Carlo as a parting gift. Heh. No, no gift. Who'd want a Monte Carlo anyway?

Buick: The division will not be closed. The Buick will not have a major turn around, but we wouldn't be surprised if we saw an increase in sales.

Ford: Fusion will sell well, as it should. Ford will finally add standard safety features to Fusion.

Hyundai: Sales increasing. 2006 might be the year that people stop thinking of Hyundai as the cheap 'n' lousy car company for good.

Isuzu will stop selling cars in the U.S.

Jaguar: Man, we don't know. They just got a bank dropped on them and we're not sure they know what to do with it. Our formal prediction: the cash infusion from Ford will go down in history as Ford's Folly. Jaguar will continue to lose money in 2006.

Lincoln: We're not sure what is up with Lincoln since they should have already closed. Ford is very confused with the division and we predict massive sales slide. The Mark LT is not the answer. The next two years could very well be the end of Lincoln.

Maybach: Maybach? It's a small luxury division of Mercedes-Benz. Anyway, they aren't selling as many cars and we wouldn't be surprised to hear discussions start about closing the division.

Saab: GM's Swedish division will lose even more money than they did in 2005 (~$300 million). And, yes, that means 2006 will be the last year for Saab. Saab will either be closed or GM will sell it.

So, essentially, 2006 will be a repeat of 2005: domestic sales down, import sales up.

Medium deals
Gas will repeat last year's rise and go over $3 again. It will _not_ get back near $2/gallon ever again. SUV sales will suffer again.

Small deals
Lexus will be top luxury brand. Mercedes will still have more cache, but every luxury car will be benchmarked to a Lexus. Specifically the (just announced) LS460. But luxury companies will also be compared to Lexus. This is significant because Mercedes-Benz was always the company that was associated with luxury.

We'll see more hybrids models (towards end of year as 2007 models) and they will continue to sell very well. Especially as gas prices creep up again.

Fuel cells will continue to be talked about but nothing much will happen with them. There will be no fuel cell break-throughs.

Comments?
Well, what the hell do you think? Comments are open below for you to spout your thoughts. Share them! Dammit! Share them! Don't make us make you drive a Ford Pinto!

Comments

[Paul]

I think Ford has a better future than GM. Either company could make a huge come back if they understood the markets better. The domestic bands need to diversify themselves in the racing world. They need to get into the Formula 1 circuit. The next shock to the auto world will be when someone makes the first hybrid sports car. 50 MPG. 0-60 in under 5 seconds and looks to kill. GM is still selling on price, instead of on value, or performance. GM also is making the biggest mistake on focussing all their advertising towards baby boomers. Unless GM can pull a hybrid out of their A$$ that can compete with Prius, they are destined for Bankruptcy.

[Paul]

I agree with you on all your predictions for 2006, but I would like to add one. The US once again will not be able to get UN to support sanctions against Iran. Forcing the US and its coalition to enforce sanctions by outside means. Iran will stop exporting Oil, this will cause a gallon of crap 87 unleaded to sell for over $4. Iran will keep this up for 2 months before the US takes military action. Gas prices will stabilize to $3 a gallon once IRAN is behind us. Consumer spending as a result will slow, restraunts, and entertainment venues will suffer. All Domestic AutoSales will Suffer. Toyota will Pass GM in US Market Share. The Prius will double its 2005 sales numbers. Toyota's Stock will go up 30% this year. GM will be lucky if its stock is above $15 a share. SportBikes will be the hot item to have this fall, as they are fast and have almost the same mileage as a prius. Toyota will announce new Prius having the ability to plug into your house to increase your mileage, by being able to drive mostly off your battery.

[mike]

Cheers to Bnewhard (JAN 28TH) Alot of our fellow Americans buy import cars and think that they are the best. They look down on our own domestic brands. The imports used to be cheap but now they are more expensive to buy and to own, considering the cost of parts compared to domestics, but people run to buy them because of all the reports, etc. I just don't buy it.
I owned a 1995 Ford contour with a 2 liter -5 speed that never got under 30 mpg's and as high as 37.3 and that car was far bigger and rode & handled better than any civic or corolla in the same price range! But Americans shyed away from it because of the Ford name. I put 150 k miles on it with just routine maintenance. It is also so much cheaper to buy a used Contour & maintain it than used imports
But this car was put to rest because people are led to believe that American cars are not as good as Imports. Baloney!
Hopefully, the Ford Fusion can keep the "Press" on their side and change alot of minds.

[bnewhard]

Imports are really reliable according to most consumers, but I have noticed that the part/cost and repairs are out of this world compared to a domestic. Let's face it, GM/Ford have to back to drawing board with their entry level lines. Henry Ford's theory of "make sure the worker can afford the vehicle he builds" holds true today. Unfortunately, the UAW worker is about the only consumer that can afford the vehicle with these sticker prices. Especially with the Hyundais and Kias out there. The toyota lower line (Camry/Carolla) are not really fun to drive, but are well built. These vehicles have earned consumers' trust. I am really excited about the new products from domestic manufacturers this year (ie. Charger,Impala,Fusion,SS line). Hopefully, the domestics can win back that trust and give the consumer some sort of investment for their purchase in the future.

Predictions 2006:

GM dumps cadillac SUV

GM has a good sales year but tells the media they are near bankruptcy.

Ford makes one new Mustang a day to keep everyone honest, LOL!

Ford wins with Fusion (doesnt it look like a Cadillac?)

Nissan starts back-peddling looking for buyers by offering big rebates and no money down leases on all models.

Honda hits a homer with the Civic SI

I will watch more old guys driving around in my dream machine (Charger RT).

The dodge Caliber probably looks like a vibe in real life.

If GM closes the Cobalt plant, my town will become a ghost town.

[Joe]

woah, ok first of all the domestics don't stink, back in the 80s everyone sucked and a large number of domestic buyers made a switch in the 1990s to imports when all cars in general improve. There is a false notion that the domestics stink. Look at the ford fusion, it beats the crap out of the Toyota Camry hands down. It has more hp (221 compared to camry's 190), more torque, doesnt look like a giant turd, has a 6 speed automatic compared to camry's 5 speed. It also gets same or better gas mileage depending on the model than the camry.

What about sports cars? WHAT IMPORT CAN COMPETE WITH THE MUSTANG? 300 hp for 24 grand, ummm no imports can. How about the fact that half of sports cars sold are mustangs. I think domestics won there

what import competes with the corvette for high end performance at a lower cost than the competition, umm none.

What about trucks, Ford f-150 sells around 1 million a year, and the quality of the f-150 is hands down superior than the competition's, i've seen nissan titan trucks get stuck in the snow and the crappy little ranger pull them out of the snow personally.

Who can compete with the freestyle? The freestyle offers near hybrid like gas mileage on the freeway for a lower cost than a hybrid and reliability(hybrids arent as reliable since their batteris can wear out)

And to the cadillac lexus comment, look at the stats for a given lexus and cadillac and you tell me whats a better deal for the money. besides lexus is a boring styled vehicle thats way over price, cadillac is at least built on its own platforms with the exception of the buick luscerne whihc is a quality vehicle shared with the DTS.

Lincoln will not die, they are gonna hold strong with zephyry, and the new MKX (not to be confused with mark LT), the MkX is a CUV like the RX330, except it comes with a bigger more powerful engine, 6 speed automatic standard with awd, and gets better acceleration, fuel mileage than the RX330 at a lower cost than the RX330, and with the best built engine in the world right now, the 3.5 duratech.

All in all its all a misperception that cars like toyota are built better than domestics.

Ford conducted a recent study in california with the fusion before the fusion was released. In the summer of 2005 before many knew what a fusion was ford took several fusions to california with no badges on them. They lined them up in parking lots next to accord, camry, sonata and altima. People were allowed to test drive each of the vehicles and the majority said they'd like to have the Fusion, which was unmarked at the time. Later when people were told who built the fusion, they opted back to a camry . This proves my point that people have a false perception about imports.

Imports are not in anyway superior to domestics dollar for dollars, especially considering the fusion runs 4k less than camry, and is cheaper than any of the imports with greater or equal performance and imo superior design and style.

[Josh Reiter]

In regards to the sales of the GTO. I think what drives people to buy that car is obviously not the looks but the fact that you can put your right foot into a 400H.P. engine without having to pay through the nose for an actual Corvette. Also, the interior fit and finish is actually pretty nice comparatively to most Chevys.

I see a lot of late 30's-40 somethings driving the GTO's around. For this age group I think the fact that the exterior looks of the car are so subdued that is part of its appeal. It doesn't cost an arm and leg for 400 H.P. and it doesn't scream "hey look at me" to all the cops the way a STI spoiler or a Mustang does.

[Dan Patterson]

Can someone tell me why, after my first being stunned by the discovery in 1973, domestic cars still stink so badly? It seems that there is a longstanding policy by the automakers to shoot themselves in both feet AND the assparts. Anyone remember the difference between the early Honda Accord and, say, the Dodge Dart of the same year? How about the present-day Cadillac (you know; the 'much improved and exciting' one)and just about any version of any Lexus? I can't think of a single category where a domestic product is superior to a similar class Asian. The German/Eurotrash products are mostly suspect as are the UK beaters, but what is the present life expectancy of the domestic automaker world? Less than 10 years?

It's not as if the skill doesn't exsist to build fine products. The problem seems to be competing with lower priced and better value. It makes the US look like a collection of goobers.

Dan Patterson
Piston-slap, Middle America...

[Thermopyle]

Gas is only $2.12 around here. (60 miles South of St. Louis.) Seems pretty close to $2.00 to me...

[If it's got an engine]

CarsCarsCars said:

"PREDICTION: Honda will continue to rock, Toyota will continue to be perfect but make snoozy cars and Subarus will get more and more expensive (and better looking). We're not sure what Nissan is doing but they are doing it better than Detroit. Essentially, import sales will go up.

RESULT: Correct!"

No Way!

The Subaru B9 Tribeca completely kills the "and get better looking" part of this prediction.

[Mike]

Do you have any predictions about Claire?

Oh, and what about VW? Here are three free predictions for you: (1) Higher prices and continued doubts about reliability cause VW a big slide in 2006; (2) New model lineup and good word of mouth cause VW to start looking good again; (3) I like eggs. I guarantee that at least one of these predictions is correct in 2006.

ps: I included a link to a good Claire photo, but you don't allow HTML in your comments. Your loss.